Like Mao did with Nehru in 1959–62, Xi Jinping posed the biggest challenge for Prime Minister Modi in his public life. In the coming days, Modi will have to take such steps, which will determine the strategic fate of the country and his political legacy himself.
It is difficult to guess what their response would be to the Chinese instigation in Ladakh. But three signs emerge. Today, when they are weighing the strategic and political options, then what questions may be arising in their mind, we can guess this. They would not like to answer the challenge like Nehru would.
Xi Jinping challenged him by choosing the time of choice, just as Mao did in 1962. Therefore, there is pressure on Modi to show the country and the world that we are not the 1962 Nehru. Nehru had decided (I told the army, shoo the Chinese), who may have shown courage but was far from reality. Therefore history does not remember him as a courageous, tough leader.
Today Modi has many advantages. Nehru's big critics were present in his cabinet. There is no such problem with Modi. The opposition is weak. The army is stronger than it was then. But Nehru also has a weakness with Modi: a huge public image and thin skin. Xi has realized this weakness.
The Chinese have seen how important 'face' is in domestic politics for Modi. He is under pressure to appear a strict, decisive, risk-taking leader. But all this does not seem easy in China.
Has history and geography written a fight in India's fate on two fronts? Can he avoid the prick of 'Trishul' by settling with one of these two? If so, whom should he choose? Thirdly, if he has no remedy, then he can remain essentially non-aligned.
In 1962, Nehru gave a voice to the US for help by keeping non-alignment. It helped, obviously by paying the price. In December, Sardar Swaran Singh was holding talks with Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto on the Kashmir issue under pressure. This had to be done in lieu of getting help from western countries. Swarn Singh got stuck, Nehru retreated, Kennedy was killed and the opportunity he had with the US was over.
Indira Gandhi was fast. The opportunity that they created as Bangladesh in 1971, they knew that they would succeed only when India was free from the pressure of China. He made a treaty with the Soviet Union. This gave him a few weeks to settle the war.
Rajiv Gandhi, Narasimha Rao, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, and Dr. Manmohan Singh did not have the political capital as Modi had. They all sought reconciliation with Pakistan to break the 'Trishul'. Modi also made a dramatic debut with Nawaz Sharif but quickly stepped in. He and his party made the opposition to Pakistan a political formula.
Modi, like his predecessors, tried to get rid of the 'Trishul' but he turned away from them towards China. With this, the trade deficit reached $ 60 billion, even if it turned around. The whole math was to make China realize that it is in its interest in reconciliation and peace with India.
Xi has now shown that the world's 'deputy superpower' strategic interests do not weigh with the business surplus. The idea of taking Pakistan along with its allies, China to the east and Arab world to the west to isolate Pakistan, was constructive and daring. But Xi turned down the offer.
Now Modi has the same three options left - take the hand of a superpower, settle with one of the two neighbors or keep fighting on both fronts while singing 'Ekla Chalo'. How will the first two options combine?
It is not beneficial for him to solve the boundary problem or determine the LAC. Peace between these two rivals is possible only when superpower wants it. China is not that superpower for India. Now the question is, will Modi return to the situation where India as a more powerful power demands peace from Pakistan?
The world community is also interested in the reform of the Pakistani state. If you move in that direction, then you will have to make necessary changes in your domestic politics. Then the question will emerge whether your strategic choices are determined by your electoral politics or vice versa?
Modi has the same old plate of options. Nehru chose the worst option, Indira chose the right option but for a short time, Manmohan Singh tried to try the third option but he had neither the time nor the political capital.
No comments:
Post a Comment